England has just had its driest July on record, with rainfall at 7% of the long-term average, and drought has been declared across half the country. This is the second severe drought in three years, following 2022 and 2025 – a clustering that is itself running ahead of what earlier projections treated as a plausible worst case.  

The UK's hydrological models are good, sometimes world-leading, but the observed trajectory of 2025–26 is testing the upper bounds of what several planning scenarios assumed. This event asks the following question: what changes in how we model, and how we plan, when reality is rapidly outrunning projections previously seen as robust?

‍This is one of two panels we are holding at the University of Strathclyde on the 6 October, forming a one-day mini-conference. Please see the events page if you want to register for the other session as well as this one.